Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Jana Lasser (), Johannes Sorger, Lukas Richter, Stefan Thurner, Daniela Schmid and Peter Klimek ()
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Jana Lasser: Graz University of Technology
Johannes Sorger: Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Lukas Richter: Graz University of Technology
Daniela Schmid: Österreichische Agentur für Gesundheit und Ernährungssicherheit GmbH

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Abstract We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6

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