Details about Stefan Thurner

Access statistics for papers by Stefan Thurner.

Last updated 2025-07-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pth386

Working Papers

2025

1. A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework to estimate the effect of supply chain networks on financial systemic risk
   Papers, arXiv.org
2. Adaptive Shock Compensation in the Multi-layer Network of Global Food Production and Trade
   Papers, arXiv.org
3. An Agent-Based Extension to Sector-Wise Input-Output Recovery Models
   Papers, arXiv.org
4. Combined climate stress testing of supply-chain networks and the financial system with nation-wide firm-level emission estimates
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford (2025)
5. Supply chain network rewiring dynamics at the firm-level
   Papers, arXiv.org
6. Systemic risk mitigation in supply chains through network rewiring
   Papers, arXiv.org
7. Using firm-level supply chain networks to measure the speed of the energy transition
   Papers, arXiv.org

2024

8. Circular Transformation of the European Steel Industry Renders Scrap Metal a Strategic Resource
   ASCII Working Papers, Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria
   Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2024)
9. Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier (2024) View citations (1) (2024)
10. Firm-level supply chains to minimize unemployment and economic losses in rapid decarbonization scenarios
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Firm-level supply chains to minimize unemployment and economic losses in rapid decarbonization scenarios, Nature Sustainability, Nature (2024) View citations (2) (2024)
11. Inferring firm-level supply chain networks with realistic systemic risk from industry sector-level data
    Papers, arXiv.org

2023

12. Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2024) View citations (2) (2024)
13. Estimating the loss of economic predictability from aggregating firm-level production networks
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
14. Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (9)

2022

15. Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods: A population-centered perspective of systemic risk
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (3)

2021

16. Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network, Nature Communications, Nature (2024) View citations (1) (2024)
17. Inferring supply networks from mobile phone data to estimate the resilience of a national economy
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (3)
18. Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library View citations (27)
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2018) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2021) View citations (44) (2021)
19. Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from nation-wide supply networks
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)

2019

20. Economic resilience from input-output susceptibility improves predictions of economic growth and recovery
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (11)
21. What is the Minimal Systemic Risk in Financial Exposure Networks?
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2020) View citations (33) (2020)

2018

22. Identifying systemically important companies in the entire liability network of a small open economy
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
23. Systemic-risk-efficient asset allocation: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
    Also in INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford (2018)
    See also Journal Article Systemic risk-efficient asset allocations: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2021) View citations (17) (2021)
24. When does a disaster become a systemic event? Estimating indirect economic losses from natural disasters
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)

2017

25. Incentivizing Resilience in Financial Networks
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Incentivizing resilience in financial networks, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2017) View citations (16) (2017)
26. Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Systemic risk management in financial networks with credit default swaps, Journal of Network Theory in Finance, Journal of Network Theory in Finance

2016

27. Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs fail to control systemic risk and can cause pro-cyclical side effects
    Papers, arXiv.org
28. Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (45)
    See also Journal Article Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax, Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals (2016) View citations (41) (2016)

2015

29. Systemic trade-risk of critical resources
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (16)
30. The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (144)
    See also Journal Article The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2015) View citations (144) (2015)

2014

31. Behavioral and Network Origins of Wealth Inequality: Insights from a Virtual World
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Behavioral and Network Origins of Wealth Inequality: Insights from a Virtual World, PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (2014) View citations (5) (2014)
32. Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (57)
    See also Journal Article Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2014) View citations (57) (2014)
33. To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2015) View citations (63) (2015)

2013

34. DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (66)

2012

35. Empirical Confirmation of Creative Destruction from World Trade Data
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard Kennedy School of Government View citations (26)
    Also in CID Working Papers, Center for International Development at Harvard University (2012) View citations (26)
    Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government (2012) View citations (27)
    Papers, arXiv.org (2011)
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard Kennedy School of Government (2012) View citations (26)
    Growth Lab Working Papers, Harvard's Growth Lab (2012)
    See also Journal Article Empirical Confirmation of Creative Destruction from World Trade Data, PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (2012) View citations (26) (2012)

2011

36. Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
    Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2010) View citations (15)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2010) View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility, Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals (2012) View citations (78) (2012)

2009

37. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable minimum model of evolution
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)

2006

38. Emerging cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma on dynamic networks
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics
39. Random matrix ensembles of time-lagged correlation matrices: Derivation of eigenvalue spectra and analysis of financial time-series
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Random matrix ensembles of time-lagged correlation matrices: derivation of eigenvalue spectra and analysis of financial time-series, Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals (2008) View citations (10) (2008)

2004

40. Contagion Flow Through Banking Networks
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (32)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Globale Krisen bewältigen: Mit Daten zu resilienteren Lieferketten
   Wirtschaftsdienst, 2025, 105, (3), 205-211
2. Microscopic origin of abrupt mixed-order phase transitions
   Nature Communications, 2025, 16, (1), 1-12
3. Supply network stress-testing of food security on the establishment-level
   International Journal of Production Research, 2025, 63, (9), 3259-3283

2024

4. Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies
   Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2024, 227, (C) View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies, Papers (2024) View citations (1) (2024)
5. Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability
   Journal of Financial Stability, 2024, 75, (C) View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability, Papers (2023) (2023)
6. Evidence-based policy-making in sports funding using a data-driven optimization approach
   PLOS ONE, 2024, 19, (12), 1-13
7. Firm-level supply chains to minimize unemployment and economic losses in rapid decarbonization scenarios
   Nature Sustainability, 2024, 7, (5), 581-589 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Firm-level supply chains to minimize unemployment and economic losses in rapid decarbonization scenarios, Papers (2024) View citations (2) (2024)
8. Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network
   Nature Communications, 2024, 15, (1), 1-8 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network, Papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)

2023

9. Equivalence of information production and generalised entropies in complex processes
   PLOS ONE, 2023, 18, (9), 1-16
10. Forensic analysis of the Turkey 2023 presidential election reveals extreme vote swings in remote areas
    PLOS ONE, 2023, 18, (11), 1-15
11. Scale-free growth in regional scientific capacity building explains long-term scientific dominance
    Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2023, 167, (C)

2022

12. Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data
    Nature Communications, 2022, 13, (1), 1-17 View citations (1)
13. Empirical social triad statistics can be explained with dyadic homophylic interactions
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022, 119, (6), e2121103119 View citations (1)
14. Stress-testing the resilience of the Austrian healthcare system using agent-based simulation
    Nature Communications, 2022, 13, (1), 1-10 View citations (2)

2021

15. Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2021, 52, (C) View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system, LSE Research Online Documents on Economics (2021) View citations (27) (2021)
16. Systemic risk-efficient asset allocations: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2021, 52, (C) View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper Systemic-risk-efficient asset allocation: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem, Papers (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
17. Thermodynamics of structure-forming systems
    Nature Communications, 2021, 12, (1), 1-8 View citations (2)

2020

18. Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions
    Nature Human Behaviour, 2020, 4, (12), 1303-1312 View citations (95)
19. The role of grammar in transition-probabilities of subsequent words in English text
    PLOS ONE, 2020, 15, (10), 1-16
20. The role of mainstreamness and interdisciplinarity for the relevance of scientific papers
    PLOS ONE, 2020, 15, (4), 1-14 View citations (1)
21. What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020, 116, (C) View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper What is the Minimal Systemic Risk in Financial Exposure Networks?, Papers (2019) (2019)

2019

22. Modelling the multi-scaled nature of pest outbreaks
    Ecological Modelling, 2019, 409, (C), - View citations (2)
23. Quantification of the resilience of primary care networks by stress testing the health care system
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019, 116, (48), 23930-23935 View citations (2)
24. Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery
    Nature Communications, 2019, 10, (1), 1-9 View citations (14)

2018

25. Asocial balance—how your friends determine your enemies: understanding the co-evolution of friendship and enmity interactions in a virtual world
    Journal of Computational Social Science, 2018, 1, (1), 227-239 View citations (1)
26. Forensic analysis of Turkish elections in 2017–2018
    PLOS ONE, 2018, 13, (10), 1-14

2017

27. Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, 77, (C), 230-246 View citations (20)
28. Fitting power-laws in empirical data with estimators that work for all exponents
    PLOS ONE, 2017, 12, (2), 1-15 View citations (5)
29. Incentivizing resilience in financial networks
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, 82, (C), 44-66 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Incentivizing Resilience in Financial Networks, Papers (2017) View citations (17) (2017)

2016

30. Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax
    Quantitative Finance, 2016, 16, (10), 1599-1613 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax, Papers (2016) View citations (45) (2016)

2015

31. Interevent time distributions of human multi-level activity in a virtual world
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2015, 419, (C), 681-690 View citations (6)
32. Physical Forces between Humans and How Humans Attract and Repel Each Other Based on Their Social Interactions in an Online World
    PLOS ONE, 2015, 10, (7), 1-13
33. The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2015, 20, (C), 70-81 View citations (144)
    See also Working Paper The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises, Papers (2015) View citations (144) (2015)
34. To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, 50, (C), 144-154 View citations (63)
    See also Working Paper To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model, Papers (2014) View citations (2) (2014)

2014

35. Behavioral and Network Origins of Wealth Inequality: Insights from a Virtual World
    PLOS ONE, 2014, 9, (8), 1-13 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Behavioral and Network Origins of Wealth Inequality: Insights from a Virtual World, Papers (2014) View citations (4) (2014)
36. Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014, 42, (C), 199-212 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies, Papers (2014) View citations (57) (2014)

2012

37. EDITORIAL — MODELING SOCIO-TECHNICAL COMPLEXITY
    Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2012, 15, (06), 1-3
38. Emergence of Good Conduct, Scaling and Zipf Laws in Human Behavioral Sequences in an Online World
    PLOS ONE, 2012, 7, (1), 1-7 View citations (7)
39. Empirical Confirmation of Creative Destruction from World Trade Data
    PLOS ONE, 2012, 7, (6), 1-9 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Empirical Confirmation of Creative Destruction from World Trade Data, Scholarly Articles (2012) View citations (26) (2012)
40. Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility
    Quantitative Finance, 2012, 12, (5), 695-707 View citations (78)
    See also Working Paper Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (3) (2011)
41. SOCIAL DYNAMICS IN A LARGE-SCALE ONLINE GAME
    Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2012, 15, (06), 1-18 View citations (5)

2011

42. Peer-review in a world with rational scientists: Toward selection of the average
    The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2011, 84, (4), 707-711 View citations (17)
43. The blogosphere as an excitable social medium: Richter’s and Omori’s Law in media coverage
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2011, 390, (21), 3870-3875 View citations (2)

2010

44. Physics of evolution: Selection without fitness
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2010, 389, (4), 747-753 View citations (2)
45. THE JERUSALEM GAME: CULTURAL EVOLUTION OF THE GOLDEN RULE
    Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2010, 13, (05), 635-641

2009

46. Limit distributions of scale-invariant probabilistic models of correlated random variables with the q-Gaussian as an explicit example
    The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2009, 72, (2), 263-268 View citations (18)
47. Network and eigenvalue analysis of financial transaction networks
    The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2009, 71, (4), 523-531 View citations (50)
48. Socio-economical dynamics as a solvable spin system on co-evolving networks
    The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2009, 67, (3), 285-289 View citations (4)
49. To how many politicians should government be left?
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2009, 388, (18), 3939-3947 View citations (4)

2008

50. Random matrix ensembles of time-lagged correlation matrices: derivation of eigenvalue spectra and analysis of financial time-series
    Quantitative Finance, 2008, 8, (7), 705-722 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Random matrix ensembles of time-lagged correlation matrices: Derivation of eigenvalue spectra and analysis of financial time-series, Papers (2006) View citations (1) (2006)
51. Solution of the unanimity rule on exponential, uniform and scalefree networks: A simple model for biodiversity collapse in foodwebs
    The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2008, 62, (3), 327-330

2007

52. Generalized Boltzmann factors and the maximum entropy principle: Entropies for complex systems
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2007, 380, (C), 109-114 View citations (3)

2006

53. HIERARCHICAL AND MIXING PROPERTIES OF STATIC COMPLEX NETWORKS EMERGING FROM FLUCTUATING CLASSICAL RANDOM GRAPHS
    International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2006, 17, (09), 1303-1311 View citations (2)
54. On the derivation of power-law distributions within classical statistical mechanics far from the thermodynamic limit
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, 365, (1), 162-166 View citations (1)
55. Statistical indicators of collective behavior and functional clusters in gene networks of yeast
    The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2006, 50, (1), 255-258 View citations (3)
56. Two statistical mechanics aspects of complex networks
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, 372, (2), 346-353 View citations (1)

2005

57. Anomalous diffusion in view of Einstein's 1905 theory of Brownian motion
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2005, 356, (2), 403-407 View citations (1)
58. Derivation of power-law distributions within standard statistical mechanics
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2005, 351, (2), 260-268 View citations (1)
59. Search and topology aspects in transport on scale-free networks
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2005, 346, (1), 183-190 View citations (2)

2004

60. An Empirical Analysis of the Network Structure of the Austrian Interbank Market
    Financial Stability Report, 2004, (7), 77-87 View citations (68)
61. Information super-diffusion on structured networks
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 332, (C), 566-584 View citations (4)
62. Network topology of the interbank market
    Quantitative Finance, 2004, 4, (6), 677-684 View citations (392)

2003

63. Anomalous diffusion on dynamical networks: a model for interacting epithelial cell migration
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2003, 320, (C), 475-484 View citations (2)
64. Risk trading, network topology and banking regulation
    Quantitative Finance, 2003, 3, (4), 306-319 View citations (23)
65. Scaling laws and persistence in human brain activity
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2003, 326, (3), 511-521 View citations (1)

Undated

66. Systemic risk management in financial networks with credit default swaps
    Journal of Network Theory in Finance
    See also Working Paper Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps, Papers (2017) View citations (18) (2017)