Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

Moritz Laber, Peter Klimek, Martin Bruckner, Liuhuaying Yang and Stefan Thurner

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food supplies. Here, we reveal the losses of $125$ food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in $192$ countries and territories using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying $10^8$ shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of up to $89\%$ in sunflower oil and $85\%$ in maize via direct effects, and up to $25\%$ in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Whilst previous studies often treated products in isolation and did not account for product conversion during production, our model studies the global propagation of local supply shocks along both production and trade relations, allowing comparison of different response strategies.

Date: 2022-10, Revised 2023-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis, nep-int and nep-net
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.01846 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2210.01846

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().