Restoring credibility in carbon offsets through systematic ex post evaluation

Philippe Delacote, Sylvain Chabé-Ferret, Anna Creti, Katharyn Duffy, Micah Elias, Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, Ben Filewod, Ben Groom, Andreas Kontoleon, Gwenole LeVelly, Tara L’Horty, Anouch Missirian and Thales A. P. West
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Sylvain Chabé-Ferret: INRAE, University of Toulouse Capitole
Anna Creti: Climate Economics Chair
Katharyn Duffy: Northern Arizona University
Micah Elias: University of California, Berkeley
Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño: University of Oxford
Ben Filewod: Canadian Forest Service
Ben Groom: University of Exeter Business School
Andreas Kontoleon: University of Cambridge
Gwenole LeVelly: Institut Agro
Tara L’Horty: AgroParisTech-INRAE, BETA
Anouch Missirian: INRAE, University of Toulouse Capitole
Thales A. P. West: Vrije University Amsterdam

Nature Sustainability, 2025, vol. 8, issue 7, 733-740

Abstract: Abstract A key factor undermining the credibility of carbon offsets is the evaluation of project baselines and their impact. The ex ante scenarios constructed by project developers in accordance with rules set by certification schemes have been challenged by ex post evaluations from scientists, who frequently document cases of credit allocations that overestimate the actual emission reductions. Increasing credibility requires methodologies that reliably measure project outcomes and prevent overcrediting—an objective that ex post evaluations may be well suited to achieve. We explore how systematic ex post evaluations could restore credibility to certification schemes in the voluntary carbon market.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01589-7

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