Restoring credibility in carbon offsets through systematic ex post evaluation

Philippe Delacote, Sylvain Chabé-Ferret, Anna Creti, Katharyn Duffy, Micah Elias, Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, Ben Filewod, Ben Groom, Andreas Kontoleon, Gwenole Levelly (), Tara L’horty (), Anouch Missirian () and Thales West
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Sylvain Chabé-Ferret: TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Anna Creti: Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Katharyn Duffy: Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff]
Micah Elias: UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California
Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño: University of Oxford
Ben Filewod: Canadian Forest Service - CFS (CANADA)
Ben Groom: University of Exeter Business School - University of Exeter
Andreas Kontoleon: CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
Gwenole Levelly: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier
Tara L’horty: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Anouch Missirian: TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Thales West: VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]

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Abstract: A key factor undermining the credibility of carbon offsets is the evaluation of project baselines and their impact. The ex-ante scenarios constructed by project developers in accordance with rules set by certification schemes have been challenged by ex-post evaluations from scientists, who frequently document cases of credit allocations that overestimate the actual emission reductions. Increasing credibility requires methodologies that reliably measure project outcomes and prevent over-crediting – an objective that ex-post evaluations may be well suited to achieve. We explore how systematic ex-post evaluations could restore credibility to certification schemes in the voluntary carbon market (VCM).

Date: 2025
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05142653v1
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Published in Nature Sustainability, 2025, 8, ⟨10.1038/s41893-025-01589-7⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05142653

DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01589-7

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