Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate

R. T. Sutton () and M. R. Allen
Additional contact information
R. T. Sutton: Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford
M. R. Allen: Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford

Nature, 1997, vol. 388, issue 6642, 563-567

Abstract: Abstract The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature1,2,3,4,5,6 could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit their influence on the atmosphere7,8,9,10 to forecast decadal fluctuations in climate11. Here we report analyses of shipboard observations that indicate significant decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, arising from the advective propagation of sea-surface-temperature anomalies4 and the existence of a regular period of 12–14 years in the propagating signals. The same timescale can be identified in a dipole-like pattern of North Atlantic sea-level pressure variability1,7,12. We propose a mechanism which may connect these oceanic and atmospheric fluctuations, possibly as part of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of variability7. Our results are encouraging for the prospects of forecasting natural fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic region several years in advance.

Date: 1997
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/41523 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:388:y:1997:i:6642:d:10.1038_41523

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/41523

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().