Outlook — probably wet in parts

Philip Newton

Nature, 1998, vol. 392, issue 6674, 334-334

Abstract: Weather is too chaotic to be predicted more than ten days or so ahead. But climate is different. Forecasts of regional climate can now be made months in advance, using a global computer model that links ocean and atmosphere circulations. The predictions are expressed as probabilities: for example, the new model predicts a 70% chance that southeast China will continue to experience unusually wet weather. Unfortunately, verifying the model's reliability will take some time.Weather is too chaotic to be predicted more than ten days or so ahead. But climate is different. Forecasts of regional climate can now be made months in advance, using a global computer model that links ocean and atmosphere circulations. The predictions are expressed as probabilities: for example, the new model predicts a 70% chance that southeast China will continue to experience unusually wet weather. Unfortunately, verifying the model's reliability will take some time.

Date: 1998
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DOI: 10.1038/32778

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