Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content

Martin I. Hoffert (), Ken Caldeira, Atul K. Jain, Erik F. Haites, L. D. Danny Harvey, Seth D. Potter, Michael E. Schlesinger, Stephen H. Schneider, Robert G. Watts, Tom M. L. Wigley and Donald J. Wuebbles
Additional contact information
Martin I. Hoffert: New York University
Ken Caldeira: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Atul K. Jain: University of Illinois
Erik F. Haites: Margaree Consultants
L. D. Danny Harvey: University of Toronto
Seth D. Potter: New York University
Michael E. Schlesinger: University of Illinois
Stephen H. Schneider: Stanford University
Robert G. Watts: Tulane University
Tom M. L. Wigley: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Donald J. Wuebbles: University of Illinois

Nature, 1998, vol. 395, issue 6705, 881-884

Abstract: Abstract The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change1 calls for “stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system . . . ”. A standard baseline scenario2,3 that assumes no policy intervention to limit greenhouse-gas emissions has 10 TW (10 × 1012 watts) of carbon-emission-free power being produced by the year 2050, equivalent to the power provided by all today's energy sources combined. Here we employ a carbon-cycle/energy model to estimate the carbon-emission-free power needed for various atmospheric CO2 stabilization scenarios. We find that CO2 stabilization with continued economic growth will require innovative, cost-effective and carbon-emission-free technologies that can provide additional tens of terawatts of primary power in the coming decades, and certainly by the middle of the twenty-first century, even with sustained improvement in the economic productivity of primary energy. At progressively lower atmospheric CO2-stabilization targets in the 750–350 p.p.m.v. range, implementing stabilization will become even more challenging because of the increasing demand for carbon-emission-free power. The magnitude of the implied infrastructure transition suggests the need for massive investments in innovative energy research.

Date: 1998
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/27638 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:395:y:1998:i:6705:d:10.1038_27638

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/27638

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().