Horse sickness and ENSO in South Africa

Matthew Baylis (), Philip S. Mellor and Rudy Meiswinkel
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Matthew Baylis: Institute for Animal Health
Philip S. Mellor: Institute for Animal Health
Rudy Meiswinkel: Institute for Animal Health

Nature, 1999, vol. 397, issue 6720, 574-574

Abstract: Abstract African horse sickness (AHS) is the most lethal infectious horse disease, with mortality rates in susceptible animals of up to 95% (ref. 1). Since its discovery at Cape Colony in the early eighteenth century, major epizootics of this viral disease have occurred in South Africa once every 10 to 15 years on average; in the largest epizootic, more than 40% of the entire horse population died. However, the cause of these major epizootics has remained unknown until now. We have found a very strong association between the timing of these epizootics and the warm (El Niño) phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and suggest that the association is mediated by the combination of rainfall and drought brought to South Africa by ENSO.

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1038/17512

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