Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming

Camille Parmesan (), Nils Ryrholm, Constantí Stefanescu, Jane K. Hill, Chris D. Thomas, Henri Descimon, Brian Huntley, Lauri Kaila, Jaakko Kullberg, Toomas Tammaru, W. John Tennent, Jeremy A. Thomas and Martin Warren
Additional contact information
Camille Parmesan: National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
Nils Ryrholm: Evolutionary Biology Centre, Section of Zoological Ecology, Uppsala University
Constantí Stefanescu: Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, Can Liro
Jane K. Hill: Environmental Research Centre, University of Durham
Chris D. Thomas: Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds
Henri Descimon: Laboratoire de Systématique Évolutive, Université de Provence
Brian Huntley: Environmental Research Centre, University of Durham
Lauri Kaila: Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki
Jaakko Kullberg: Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki
Toomas Tammaru: Institute of Zoology and Botany, Estonian Agricultural University
W. John Tennent: Biogeography and Conservation Laboratory, The Natural History Museum (BMNH)
Jeremy A. Thomas: Furzebrook Research Station, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology
Martin Warren: Butterfly Conservation

Nature, 1999, vol. 399, issue 6736, 579-583

Abstract: Abstract Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50–100 years1,2,3. Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration4, but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of individuals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at the southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single species5 or to only a portion of the species' range6,7. Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35–240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south.

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1038/21181

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