Multi-gas assessment of the Kyoto Protocol

John Reilly, R. Prinn, J. Harnisch, J. Fitzmaurice, H. Jacoby, D. Kicklighter, J. Melillo, P. Stone, A. Sokolov and C. Wang
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R. Prinn: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
J. Harnisch: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
J. Fitzmaurice: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
H. Jacoby: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
D. Kicklighter: The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory
J. Melillo: The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory
P. Stone: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A. Sokolov: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
C. Wang: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Nature, 1999, vol. 401, issue 6753, 549-555

Abstract: Abstract The Kyoto Protocol allows reductions in emissions of several ‘greenhouse’ gases to be credited against a CO2-equivalent emissions limit, calculated using ‘global warming potential’ indices for each gas. Using an integrated global-systems model, it is shown that a multi-gas control strategy could greatly reduce the costs of fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol compared with a CO2-only strategy. Extending the Kyoto Protocol to 2100 without more severe emissions reductions shows little difference between the two strategies in climate and ecosystem effects. Under a more stringent emissions policy, the use of global warming potentials as applied in the Kyoto Protocol leads to considerably more mitigation of climate change for multi-gas strategies than for the—supposedly equivalent—CO2-only control, thus emphasizing the limits of global warming potentials as a tool for political decisions.

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1038/44069

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