Abrupt termination of the 1997–98 El Niño in response to a Madden–Julian oscillation

Yukari N. Takayabu, Toshio Iguchi, Misako Kachi, Akira Shibata and Hiroshi Kanzawa
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Yukari N. Takayabu: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Toshio Iguchi: Communications Research Laboratory
Misako Kachi: Earth Observation Research Center/NASDA
Akira Shibata: Earth Observation Research Center/NASDA
Hiroshi Kanzawa: National Institute for Environmental Studies

Nature, 1999, vol. 402, issue 6759, 279-282

Abstract: Abstract The role of the Madden–Julian oscillation—a global atmospheric wave in the tropics that is associated with convective activity and propagates eastwards with a period of about 30–60 days (refs 1, 2)—in triggering El Niño events has been discussed before3,4,5,6,7,8. But its possible connection with a termination of El Niño has yet to be investigated, despite the difficulty in explaining the timing of El Niño terminations by the basic wind-induced oceanic-wave processes9,10. For the extreme 1997–98 event, the mechanism of both onset and termination have been investigated3, but the reason for the abruptness of the termination has yet to be resolved. Here we present global data of precipitation, sea surface temperatures and wind speeds that show a precipitation system associated with an exceptionally strong Madden–Julian oscillation travelling around the Equator in May 1998. The propagation of this atmospheric system was associated with an abrupt intensification of the easterly trade winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Combined with the already shallow equatorial thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean at that time3, these strong winds provided the triggering mechanism for the observed accelerated ending of the 1997–98 El Niño event.

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1038/46254

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