A reduced estimate of the number of kilometre-sized near-Earth asteroids

David Rabinowitz, Eleanor Helin, Kenneth Lawrence and Steven Pravdo
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David Rabinowitz: Yale University Physics Department
Eleanor Helin: Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Kenneth Lawrence: Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Steven Pravdo: Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Nature, 2000, vol. 403, issue 6766, 165-166

Abstract: Abstract Near-Earth asteroids are small (diameters 1 km has been estimated to be in the range 1,000–2,000, which translates to an approximately 1% chance of a catastrophic collision with the Earth in the next millennium1,2. These numbers are, however, poorly constrained because of the limitations of previous searches using photographic plates. (One kilometre is below the size of a body whose impact on the Earth would produce global effects3.) Here we report an analysis of our survey for near-Earth asteroids that uses improved detection technologies. We find that the total number of asteroids with diameters > 1 km is about half the earlier estimates. At the current rate of discovery of near-Earth asteroids, 90% will probably have been detected within the next 20 years.

Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1038/35003128

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