Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models

Kevin Robert Gurney, Rachel M. Law, A. Scott Denning (), Peter J. Rayner, David Baker, Philippe Bousquet, Lori Bruhwiler, Yu-Han Chen, Philippe Ciais, Songmiao Fan, Inez Y. Fung, Manuel Gloor, Martin Heimann, Kaz Higuchi, Jasmin John, Takashi Maki, Shamil Maksyutov, Ken Masarie, Philippe Peylin, Michael Prather, Bernard C. Pak, James Randerson, Jorge Sarmiento, Shoichi Taguchi, Taro Takahashi and Chiu-Wai Yuen
Additional contact information
Kevin Robert Gurney: Colorado State University
Rachel M. Law: CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1
A. Scott Denning: Colorado State University
Peter J. Rayner: CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1
David Baker: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Philippe Bousquet: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Lori Bruhwiler: Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Yu-Han Chen: Atmospheric, and Planetary Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Songmiao Fan: AOS Program, Princeton University, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, PO Box CN710
Inez Y. Fung: Center for Atmospheric Sciences, McCone Hall, University of California
Manuel Gloor: Max-Planck-Institut fur Biogeochemie
Martin Heimann: Max-Planck-Institut fur Biogeochemie
Kaz Higuchi: Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada
Jasmin John: Center for Atmospheric Sciences, McCone Hall, University of California
Takashi Maki: Quality Assurance Section, Japan Meteorological Agency
Shamil Maksyutov: Institute for Global Change Research, Frontier Research System for Global Change
Ken Masarie: Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Philippe Peylin: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Michael Prather: Earth System Science, University of California
Bernard C. Pak: Earth System Science, University of California
James Randerson: California Institute of Technology, Mail Stop 100-23
Jorge Sarmiento: AOS Program, Princeton University, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, PO Box CN710
Shoichi Taguchi: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
Taro Takahashi: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
Chiu-Wai Yuen: Max-Planck-Institut fur Biogeochemie

Nature, 2002, vol. 415, issue 6872, 626-630

Abstract: Abstract Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. Here we report estimates of surface–atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. We find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches. We also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to our understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network within the tropics.

Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1038/415626a

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