Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Neil M. Ferguson (), Matt J. Keeling, W. John Edmunds, Raymond Gani, Bryan T. Grenfell, Roy M. Anderson and Steve Leach
Additional contact information
Neil M. Ferguson: Imperial College London
Matt J. Keeling: University of Warwick
W. John Edmunds: Health Protection Agency, CDSC
Raymond Gani: Health Protection Agency, CAMR
Bryan T. Grenfell: University of Cambridge
Roy M. Anderson: Imperial College London
Steve Leach: Health Protection Agency, CAMR

Nature, 2003, vol. 425, issue 6959, 681-685

Abstract: Abstract Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1038/nature02007

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