Extinction risk from climate change

Chris D. Thomas (), Alison Cameron, Rhys E. Green, Michel Bakkenes, Linda J. Beaumont, Yvonne C. Collingham, Barend F. N. Erasmus, Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira, Alan Grainger, Lee Hannah, Lesley Hughes, Brian Huntley, Albert S. van Jaarsveld, Guy F. Midgley, Lera Miles, Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta, A. Townsend Peterson, Oliver L. Phillips and Stephen E. Williams
Additional contact information
Chris D. Thomas: University of Leeds
Alison Cameron: University of Leeds
Rhys E. Green: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Michel Bakkenes: National Institute of Public Health and Environment
Linda J. Beaumont: Macquarie University
Yvonne C. Collingham: University of Durham, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences
Barend F. N. Erasmus: University of the Witwatersrand
Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira: Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental
Alan Grainger: University of Leeds
Lee Hannah: Conservation International
Lesley Hughes: Macquarie University
Brian Huntley: University of Durham, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences
Albert S. van Jaarsveld: University of Stellenbosch
Guy F. Midgley: National Botanical Institute
Lera Miles: University of Leeds
Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
A. Townsend Peterson: University of Kansas
Oliver L. Phillips: University of Leeds
Stephen E. Williams: School of Tropical Biology, James Cook University

Nature, 2004, vol. 427, issue 6970, 145-148

Abstract: Abstract Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (138)

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DOI: 10.1038/nature02121

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