Maturation trends indicative of rapid evolution preceded the collapse of northern cod

Esben M. Olsen (), Mikko Heino, George R. Lilly, M. Joanne Morgan, John Brattey, Bruno Ernande and Ulf Dieckmann
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Esben M. Olsen: Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Mikko Heino: Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
George R. Lilly: Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre
M. Joanne Morgan: Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre
John Brattey: Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre
Bruno Ernande: Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Ulf Dieckmann: Adaptive Dynamics Network, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nature, 2004, vol. 428, issue 6986, 932-935

Abstract: Abstract Northern cod, comprising populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off southern Labrador and eastern Newfoundland, supported major fisheries for hundreds of years1. But in the late 1980s and early 1990s, northern cod underwent one of the worst collapses in the history of fisheries2,3,4. The Canadian government closed the directed fishing for northern cod in July 1992, but even after a decade-long offshore moratorium, population sizes remain historically low4. Here we show that, up until the moratorium, the life history of northern cod continually shifted towards maturation at earlier ages and smaller sizes. Because confounding effects of mortality changes and growth-mediated phenotypic plasticity are accounted for in our analyses, this finding strongly suggests fisheries-induced evolution of maturation patterns in the direction predicted by theory5,6. We propose that fisheries managers could use the method described here as a tool to provide warning signals about changes in life history before more overt evidence of population decline becomes manifest.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1038/nature02430

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