Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Wilfried Thuiller (), Miguel B. Araújo, Richard G. Pearson, Robert J. Whittaker, Lluís Brotons and Sandra Lavorel
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Wilfried Thuiller: Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS
Miguel B. Araújo: Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University
Richard G. Pearson: Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University
Robert J. Whittaker: Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University
Lluís Brotons: Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS
Sandra Lavorel: Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université Joseph Fourier

Nature, 2004, vol. 430, issue 6995, 34-34

Abstract: Abstract Arising from: C. D. Thomas et al. Nature 427, 145–148 (2004); see also communication from Buckley & Roughgarden and communication from Harte et al.;Thomas et al. reply Thomas et al.1 model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species–area relationship to estimate that 15–37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1038/nature02716

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