Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

D. A. Stainforth (), T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J. M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L. A. Smith, R. A. Spicer, A. J. Thorpe and M. R. Allen
Additional contact information
D. A. Stainforth: University of Oxford
T. Aina: University of Oxford
C. Christensen: University of Oxford
M. Collins: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office
N. Faull: University of Oxford
D. J. Frame: University of Oxford
J. A. Kettleborough: Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
S. Knight: University of Oxford
A. Martin: University of Oxford
J. M. Murphy: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office
C. Piani: University of Oxford
D. Sexton: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office
L. A. Smith: London School of Economics
R. A. Spicer: The Open University
A. J. Thorpe: University of Reading
M. R. Allen: University of Oxford

Nature, 2005, vol. 433, issue 7024, 403-406

Abstract: Climate models: net gains In the climateprediction.net project, thousands of individuals have volunteered spare computing capacity on their PCs to help quantify uncertainty in the way our climate responds to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. By running a state-of-the-art climate model thousands of times, it is possible to find out how the model responds to slight changes in the approximations of physical processes that cannot be calculated explicitly. The first batch of results has now been analysed, and surface temperature changes in simulations that capture the climate realistically are ranging from below 2 °C to more than 11 °C. These represent the possible long-term change, averaged over the whole planet, as a result of doubling the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the model. This is the first time that complex models have been found with such a wide range of responses. Their existence will help in quantifying the risks associated with climate change on a regional level.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1038/nature03301

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