Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Matthew C. Gerstenberger (), Stefan Wiemer, Lucile M. Jones and Paul A. Reasenberg
Additional contact information
Matthew C. Gerstenberger: US Geological Survey
Stefan Wiemer: Institute of Geophysics
Lucile M. Jones: US Geological Survey
Paul A. Reasenberg: US Geological Survey

Nature, 2005, vol. 435, issue 7040, 328-331

Abstract: Earthquake Forecasting The difficulty of predicting individual earthquakes accurately often obscures the progress made by seismologists studying the probability of earthquake occurrence. A new approach aims to keep the public in touch with what seismologists know. To coincide with the launch of a new short-term earthquake forecasting system for California, a new website (pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step) gives a measure of the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The methodology combines an earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with a model of clustering. The resulting forecasts will provide a better understanding of the daily changes in earthquake hazard to the public, media and emergency planners. Cover: San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake (Rykoff Collection/CORBIS).

Date: 2005
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature03622 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:435:y:2005:i:7040:d:10.1038_nature03622

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/nature03622

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().