Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

Kerry Emanuel ()
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Kerry Emanuel: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Nature, 2005, vol. 436, issue 7051, 686-688

Abstract: Winds of change No overall trend in hurricane frequency has been detected so far. But using a new measure of a hurricane power, Kerry Emanuel shows that the destructive potential of tropical cyclones has nearly doubled over the past 30 years, and is highly correlated with tropical sea-surface temperature. Storms are on average lasting longer and developing greater intensity than they did in the mid-1970s. Such a dramatic increase is matter for concern: future global warming would almost certainly increase sea-surface temperatures and hence the destructive potential of tropical cyclones. With populations in coastal areas also on the increase, more people would be at risk than ever before.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1038/nature03906

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