Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

James C. Orr (), Victoria J. Fabry, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, Richard A. Feely, Anand Gnanadesikan, Nicolas Gruber, Akio Ishida, Fortunat Joos, Robert M. Key, Keith Lindsay, Ernst Maier-Reimer, Richard Matear, Patrick Monfray, Anne Mouchet, Raymond G. Najjar, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Keith B. Rodgers, Christopher L. Sabine, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Reiner Schlitzer, Richard D. Slater, Ian J. Totterdell, Marie-France Weirig, Yasuhiro Yamanaka and Andrew Yool
Additional contact information
James C. Orr: UMR CEA-CNRS, CEA Saclay
Victoria J. Fabry: California State University San Marcos
Olivier Aumont: Centre IRD de Bretagne
Laurent Bopp: UMR CEA-CNRS, CEA Saclay
Scott C. Doney: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Richard A. Feely: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Anand Gnanadesikan: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Nicolas Gruber: UCLA
Akio Ishida: Frontier Research Center for Global Change
Fortunat Joos: University of Bern
Robert M. Key: Princeton University
Keith Lindsay: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Ernst Maier-Reimer: Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Richard Matear: CSIRO Marine Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC
Patrick Monfray: UMR CEA-CNRS, CEA Saclay
Anne Mouchet: University of Liege
Raymond G. Najjar: Pennsylvania State University
Gian-Kasper Plattner: UCLA
Keith B. Rodgers: UMR CEA-CNRS, CEA Saclay
Christopher L. Sabine: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Jorge L. Sarmiento: Princeton University
Reiner Schlitzer: Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Richard D. Slater: Princeton University
Ian J. Totterdell: National Oceanography Centre Southampton
Marie-France Weirig: Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Yasuhiro Yamanaka: Frontier Research Center for Global Change
Andrew Yool: National Oceanography Centre Southampton

Nature, 2005, vol. 437, issue 7059, 681-686

Abstract: Abstract Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1038/nature04095

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