Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

W. H. Bakun (), B. Aagaard, B. Dost, W. L. Ellsworth, J. L. Hardebeck, R. A. Harris, C. Ji, M. J. S. Johnston, J. Langbein, J. J. Lienkaemper, A. J. Michael, J. R. Murray, R. M. Nadeau, P. A. Reasenberg, M. S. Reichle, E. A. Roeloffs, A. Shakal, R. W. Simpson and F. Waldhauser
Additional contact information
W. H. Bakun: US Geological Survey
B. Aagaard: US Geological Survey
B. Dost: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Seismology Division
W. L. Ellsworth: US Geological Survey
J. L. Hardebeck: US Geological Survey
R. A. Harris: US Geological Survey
C. Ji: Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Caltech
M. J. S. Johnston: US Geological Survey
J. Langbein: US Geological Survey
J. J. Lienkaemper: US Geological Survey
A. J. Michael: US Geological Survey
J. R. Murray: US Geological Survey
R. M. Nadeau: Berkeley Seismological Laboratory
P. A. Reasenberg: US Geological Survey
M. S. Reichle: California Geological Survey
E. A. Roeloffs: US Geological Survey
A. Shakal: California Geological Survey
R. W. Simpson: US Geological Survey
F. Waldhauser: Columbia University

Nature, 2005, vol. 437, issue 7061, 969-974

Abstract: Abstract Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

Date: 2005
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04067 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:437:y:2005:i:7061:d:10.1038_nature04067

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/nature04067

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().