Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin

Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho (), Daniel Curtis Nepstad (), Lisa M. Curran, Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira, Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia, Claudia Azevedo Ramos, Eliane Voll, Alice McDonald, Paul Lefebvre and Peter Schlesinger
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Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho: Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto
Daniel Curtis Nepstad: The Woods Hole Research Center
Lisa M. Curran: Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira: Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto
Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Claudia Azevedo Ramos: Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia
Eliane Voll: Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto
Alice McDonald: Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
Paul Lefebvre: The Woods Hole Research Center
Peter Schlesinger: The Woods Hole Research Center

Nature, 2006, vol. 440, issue 7083, 520-523

Abstract: Choose it or lose it Deforestation is continuing in the Amazon basin as the cattle and soy industries expand. The main conservation policy there involves ‘protected areas’: areas designated by national governments that are left undisturbed to allow natural vegetation to develop. But this alone may not protect the rainforest ecosystem from collapse. An new estimate of forest losses made using the SimAmazonia 1 computer model suggests that by 2050, agricultural expansion will eliminate two-thirds of the forest cover of five major watersheds and ten ecoregions. One in four mammalian species examined will lose 40% of their forest habitat. Although an improved network of protected areas could avoid up to a third of projected forest loss, forest conservation on private properties will be essential if the Amazon landscapes and watersheds are to be maintained.

Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1038/nature04389

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