Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries

Gabriele C. Hegerl (), Thomas J. Crowley, William T. Hyde and David J. Frame
Additional contact information
Gabriele C. Hegerl: Duke University
Thomas J. Crowley: Duke University
William T. Hyde: Duke University
David J. Frame: University of Oxford

Nature, 2006, vol. 440, issue 7087, 1029-1032

Abstract: Back to the future The scale of any future global warming will depend on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Past climate is a useful guide to future events and now a new estimate of climate sensitivity, based on reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature in the pre-industrial period 1270–1850, provides the best guide yet. It was thought that the upper limit of climate sensitivity (global mean temperature change due to CO2 doubling) was between 7.7 °C and above 9 °C. But the new model suggests a small probability that climate sensitivity will exceed 6.2 °C.

Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1038/nature04679

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