Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Neil M. Ferguson (), Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley and Donald S. Burke
Additional contact information
Neil M. Ferguson: Imperial College London
Derek A. T. Cummings: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Christophe Fraser: Imperial College London
James C. Cajka: RTI International Inc.
Philip C. Cooley: RTI International Inc.
Donald S. Burke: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Nature, 2006, vol. 442, issue 7101, 448-452

Abstract: Pandemic flu: talking tactics Numerical models of the epidemiology of a potential flu pandemic show there is no single magic bullet which can control the outbreak, but that a combination of approaches could reduce transmission and save many lives. Border restrictions are unlikely to have much effect and travel restrictions within one country would make very little difference to the spread of a pandemic within that country. The models predict that a pandemic in the United Kingdom would peak within two to three months of the first case, and be over within 4 months. It also shows that vaccines need to be available within two months of the start of a pandemic to have a big effect in reducing infection rates. That means that vaccines would need to be stockpiled in advance to be effective.

Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1038/nature04795

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