Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures

Steven G. Wesnousky ()
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Steven G. Wesnousky: University of Nevada

Nature, 2006, vol. 444, issue 7117, 358-360

Abstract: Earthquakes: the endgame Once an earthquake has been initiated the question arises, where will it end? How big an earthquake will it be? Analysis of the mapped surface rupture traces of 22 historical strike-slip earthquakes, the first at San Andreas, California in 1857 and the most recent at Denali, Alaska in 2002, shows that rupture endpoints frequently coincide with fault steps or the termini of active fault traces, and that a fault step of more than 3 or 4 km effectively stops an earthquake rupture in its tracks. These findings are relevant to seismic hazard analysis by suggesting limits on the probable extent of future earthquakes on known active faults.

Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1038/nature05275

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