Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics

Lewi Stone (), Ronen Olinky and Amit Huppert
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Lewi Stone: Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Science
Ronen Olinky: Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Science
Amit Huppert: Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Science

Nature, 2007, vol. 446, issue 7135, 533-536

Abstract: The season to be ill A new epidemiological model should help those trying to predict seasonal infections, such as influenza, measles, pertussis and chickenpox, and has implications for the design of vaccination campaigns. The model focuses on what happens after an outbreak, and the key finding is that there is an epidemic threshold determined by a population's susceptibility after the last outbreak and the rate at which susceptible individuals join the population. If the number of unexposed nonimmune individuals is high, an epidemic is likely. If the number of 'susceptibles' is below threshold, the disease may 'skip' a year.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1038/nature05638

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