Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years

Dana L. Royer (), Robert A. Berner and Jeffrey Park
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Dana L. Royer: Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut 06459, USA
Robert A. Berner: Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
Jeffrey Park: Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA

Nature, 2007, vol. 446, issue 7135, 530-532

Abstract: Calibrating the climate Understanding the response of global mean surface temperature to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is critical for interpreting past climate change, and for predicting future trends. Most estimates of the temperature increase resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the 'climate sensitivity', are based on records spanning the past few decades to millennia, so may have limited applicability under different climate conditions. Royer et al. use a novel approach, which involves modelling carbon dioxide concentrations and comparing the simulations with proxy records, to estimate climate sensitivity on long timescales. The results indicate that climate sensitivity was almost certainly greater than 1.5 °C. This is consistent with estimates based on short-term records, suggesting that it may have been a robust feature of Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1038/nature05699

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