Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity

Gabriel A. Vecchi () and Brian J. Soden
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Gabriel A. Vecchi: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA
Brian J. Soden: Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida 33149, USA

Nature, 2007, vol. 450, issue 7172, 1066-1070

Abstract: Remote control of cyclones The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is poorly understood. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures favour cyclone development and intensification, but this may not be the case as so many other factors are involved. Gabriel Vecchi and Brian Soden explore the relationship between changes in sea-surface temperature and a measure called 'tropical cyclone potential intensity', which provides an upper limit on cyclone intensity. They find that changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming, rather than local sea surface temperature — regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. This suggests that the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger (per unit local sea surface temperature change) than the response to the more uniform patterns of warming induced by greenhouse gases.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06423

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