Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity

Mark A. Saunders () and Adam S. Lea
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Mark A. Saunders: Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK
Adam S. Lea: Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK

Nature, 2008, vol. 451, issue 7178, 557-560

Abstract: Atlantic hurricanes The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity is widely believed to be due in part to rising sea surface temperatures, but to what extent is not known. Mark Saunders and Adam Lea quantify this contribution for storms forming in the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico using a statistical model based on two environmental variables — local sea surface temperature and an atmospheric wind field. They conclude that local sea surface warming was responsible for about 40 per cent of the increase in hurricane activity (relative to the 1950–2000 average) between 1996 and 2005.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06422

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