The coming acceleration of global population ageing

Wolfgang Lutz (), Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov
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Wolfgang Lutz: World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Warren Sanderson: World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Sergei Scherbov: World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Nature, 2008, vol. 451, issue 7179, 716-719

Abstract: Growing old fast The rate at which the world's population ages is important to policymakers, especially those dealing with pensions and healthcare. In particular, it is vital to anticipate periods of rapid change, when adjustments will be the most difficult. A new estimate of ageing trends in the global population combines traditional measures, based on a fixed age boundary, with new concepts of age. New concepts include a fixed remaining life expectancy, as today's 60 year old is 'younger' than a 60 year old from 1900 and has more years left to live. No matter how you look at it, the estimates are that the world's population is ageing with increasing speed. Global ageing is likely to peak between 2020 and 2030, and then decelerate, although there will be further increases in the level of ageing throughout the century. The timing of 'peak ageing' is based on past patterns of fertility. In the United States and in parts of Western Europe the 'baby boomers' are a big factor. In China, the timing of fertility control policies has a big influence.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06516

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