Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community

Elisa Benincà, Jef Huisman (), Reinhard Heerkloss, Klaus D. Jöhnk, Pedro Branco, Egbert H. Van Nes, Marten Scheffer and Stephen P. Ellner
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Elisa Benincà: Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jef Huisman: Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Reinhard Heerkloss: Institute of Biosciences, University of Rostock
Klaus D. Jöhnk: Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Pedro Branco: Aquatic Microbiology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Egbert H. Van Nes: Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, University of Wageningen
Marten Scheffer: Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, University of Wageningen
Stephen P. Ellner: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA

Nature, 2008, vol. 451, issue 7180, 822-825

Abstract: Food webs: chaos reigns Many mathematical models predict chaos in food webs, raising doubts over the extent to which we can predict future changes in species abundances as a result of climate change and habitat loss. This 'ecological' chaos has been demonstrated in simple model systems but not in real ecosystems, leading to suggestions that the real world may have a way of avoiding it. But now an extended (8 year) experimental study of a marine planktonic community isolated from the Baltic Sea has revealed 'naturally' chaotic population dynamics, implying that our ability to predict the long-term dynamics of real ecosystems may indeed be severely limited.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06512

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