Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Kate E. Jones, Nikkita G. Patel, Marc A. Levy, Adam Storeygard, Deborah Balk, John L. Gittleman and Peter Daszak ()
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Kate E. Jones: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
Nikkita G. Patel: Consortium for Conservation Medicine, Wildlife Trust, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, New York 10001, USA
Marc A. Levy: Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, New York 10964, USA
Deborah Balk: Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, New York 10964, USA
John L. Gittleman: Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
Peter Daszak: Consortium for Conservation Medicine, Wildlife Trust, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, New York 10001, USA

Nature, 2008, vol. 451, issue 7181, 990-993

Abstract: The next new disease Emerging infectious diseases are a major threat to health: AIDS, SARS, drug-resistant bacteria and Ebola virus are among the more recent examples. By identifying emerging disease 'hotspots', the thinking goes, it should be possible to spot health risks at an early stage and prepare containment strategies. An analysis of over 300 examples of disease emerging between 1940 and 2004 suggests that these hotspots can be accurately mapped based on socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors. The data show that the surveillance effort, and much current research spending, is concentrated in developed economies, yet the risk maps point to developing countries as the more likely source of new diseases.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06536

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