Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

Simon Cauchemez (), Alain-Jacques Valleron, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Antoine Flahault and Neil M. Ferguson
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Simon Cauchemez: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Alain-Jacques Valleron: Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
Pierre-Yves Boëlle: Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
Antoine Flahault: Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
Neil M. Ferguson: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK

Nature, 2008, vol. 452, issue 7188, 750-754

Abstract: Schools out for influenza One option open to public health authorities facing the prospect of an influenza pandemic is the closure of all the schools. A dramatic gesture, but would it help? There is a shortage of reliable data on the matter, but the Sentinel network, linking over a thousand general practitioners across France, provides a resource that can tackle the question by comparing a 21-year record of daily reported cases of flu-like disease with the dates of school vacations — the timing of which is staggered across France minimizing the impact of seasonal factors. The answer is yes, there is a reduction, of about 20%, in rates of flu transmission to children. This translates into a predicted reduction of about 15% in the overall number of cases if schools were closed during a pandemic, sufficient to reduce stress on the healthcare system, but not to stop the disease in its tracks.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06732

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