Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

N. S. Keenlyside (), M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh and E. Roeckner
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N. S. Keenlyside: Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany
M. Latif: Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany
J. Jungclaus: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
L. Kornblueh: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
E. Roeckner: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany

Nature, 2008, vol. 453, issue 7191, 84-88

Abstract: Decadal climate prediction The fluctuating climate of the North Atlantic has profound consequences, inducing changes in hurricane activity, surface temperatures and rainfall from North America to Europe and Africa. In principle, these changes could be predicted if the current state of the ocean were known, but the necessary subsurface observations are lacking. Keenlyside et al. now show that detailed knowledge of the ocean state is not strictly necessary for producing useful predictions on decadal timescales. Their approach, which has proved its worth in 'retro-spective' forecasts, uses existing sea surface temperature observations to improve the forecasting power of climate models. The new model predicts that over the next decade, natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans will temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming: surface temperatures in Europe and North America may even cool a little during this period.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06921

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