Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

Peter M. Cox (), Phil P. Harris, Chris Huntingford, Richard A. Betts, Matthew Collins, Chris D. Jones, Tim E. Jupp, José A. Marengo and Carlos A. Nobre
Additional contact information
Peter M. Cox: School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter
Phil P. Harris: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Chris Huntingford: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Richard A. Betts: Met Office Hadley Centre
Matthew Collins: Met Office Hadley Centre
Chris D. Jones: Met Office Hadley Centre
Tim E. Jupp: School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter
José A. Marengo: Brazilian Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Carlos A. Nobre: Brazilian Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Nature, 2008, vol. 453, issue 7192, 212-215

Abstract: Dry outlook for the Amazon The severe drought of 2005 in the western Amazonian rainforest, apparently associated with unusually high sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic ocean, was a dramatic event that prompted speculation that tropical forest dieback was a potential 'tipping point' of the climate system. A new analysis suggests that this event can be better understood with reference to the gradient in sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic, of which the northern temperature anomalies are just one factor. When the effects of atmospheric aerosols are incorporated into the model, the observed variations in this temperature gradient over the past century can be reproduced. And projecting these trends to the future, the model suggests that sea-surface conditions conducive to droughts like that seen in 2005 will become much more common.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature06960

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