Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

Catia M. Domingues (), John A. Church, Neil J. White, Peter J. Gleckler, Susan E. Wijffels, Paul M. Barker and Jeff R. Dunn
Additional contact information
Catia M. Domingues: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
John A. Church: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Neil J. White: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Peter J. Gleckler: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Mail Code L-103, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, California 94550, USA
Susan E. Wijffels: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Paul M. Barker: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
Jeff R. Dunn: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia

Nature, 2008, vol. 453, issue 7198, 1090-1093

Abstract: Upper-ocean warming and sea-level rise Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from observations, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. Domingues et al. report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper ocean from 1950 to 2003, applying corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Their ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961 to 2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993 to 2003, consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s were biased by instrumental errors. The authors add observational estimates of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise, and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is in good agreement with their updated estimate of near-global mean sea level.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature07080

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