The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon

S. Davis (), P. Trapman, H. Leirs, M. Begon and J. A. P. Heesterbeek
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S. Davis: Theoretical Epidemiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands
P. Trapman: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands
H. Leirs: University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium
M. Begon: Host-Parasite Biology Research Group, School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool L69 7ZB, UK
J. A. P. Heesterbeek: Theoretical Epidemiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands

Nature, 2008, vol. 454, issue 7204, 634-637

Abstract: Plague spread by numbers Percolation theory is a part of statistical physics that deals with the slow flow of liquid through porous media, and is more generally extended to consider the formation of long-range connectivity in a random system. It has been suggested that this theory might apply to the spread of infectious diseases in certain conditions, but no natural examples have been reported until now. A disease that does behave in this way is plague (Yersinia pestis infection) among great gerbils in Central Asia. The flea dispersal movements carrying plague from one family group of great gerbils to another are small compared to the vast areas of the desert habitat. This equates to a system in which plague percolates through an area only if the landscape is sufficiently filled with family groups of hosts.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature07053

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