The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones

James B. Elsner (), James P. Kossin and Thomas H. Jagger
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James B. Elsner: Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA
James P. Kossin: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
Thomas H. Jagger: Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA

Nature, 2008, vol. 455, issue 7209, 92-95

Abstract: Tropical cyclones: The strong get stronger Although cyclones in the tropical Atlantic appear, on average, to be getting stronger in response to increasing ocean temperatures, no clear trends of this sort have been discerned in other tropical regions. A new analysis of cyclone intensity, using 25 years' worth of satellite data, suggests that there is a global trend, but that it is quite subtle. The main changes appear not in an upward trend of average cyclone intensity, but rather in the maximum speeds attained by cyclones during their lifetimes — and the stronger the cyclone, the greater the change. A possible pattern of increasing maximum speeds for the strongest cyclones is detected in each ocean basin, but is most pronounced in the tropical North Atlantic.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature07234

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