Arctic tropospheric warming amplification?

Peter W. Thorne
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Peter W. Thorne: * Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. peter.thorne@metoffice.gov.uk

Nature, 2008, vol. 455, issue 7210, E1-E2

Abstract: Abstract Arising from: R. G. Graversen, T. Mauritsen, M. Tjernström, E. Källén & G. Svensson Nature 451, 53–56 (2008)10.1038/nature06502 ; Graversen et al. reply Relative rates of temperature change between the troposphere and surface, and the mechanisms that produce these changes, have long been a contentious issue. Graversen et al.1, predicated upon the ERA-40 reanalysis2, report polar tropospheric amplification of surface warming and attempt to explain this finding dynamically. Here we show (1) that data from satellites3,4 and weather balloons5 indicate that the ERA-40 trends are increasingly unrealistic polewards of 62° N; (2) that the two other reanalyses considered1 exhibit very different polar trends; and (3) that the vertical profile of polar trends in ERA-40 is unrealistic, particularly above the troposphere. These quasi-independent strands of evidence imply that the pattern of warming in the Arctic troposphere is highly unlikely to be as given in ERA-40 and as reported by Graversen et al.1.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature07256

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