Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Christophe Cassou ()
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Christophe Cassou: CNRS-Cerfacs, Global Change and Climate Modelling project, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France

Nature, 2008, vol. 455, issue 7212, 523-527

Abstract: North Atlantic climate: tropical weather in Europe The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major source of weather to climate variability over Europe, is generally seen as an intrinsic mode of the atmosphere with no real predictability on medium-range to seasonal timescales. Christophe Cassou now presents evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics (the Madden-Julian Oscillation) controls part of the distribution and sequences of the NAO, and to a lesser extent the other three daily weather regimes that prevail in the region in winter. This finding allows for medium-range predictability of the phase of the NAO far in excess of the one week or so usually quoted as a limit. Cassou presents a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of its regimes when they occur. His forecasts are successful in about 70% of the cases based on knowledge of the previous 12-day Madden-Julian Oscillation phase as predictor.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature07286

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