Linking climate change to lemming cycles

Kyrre L. Kausrud, Atle Mysterud, Harald Steen, Jon Olav Vik, Eivind Østbye, Bernard Cazelles, Erik Framstad, Anne Maria Eikeset, Ivar Mysterud, Torstein Solhøy and Nils Chr. Stenseth ()
Additional contact information
Kyrre L. Kausrud: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,
Atle Mysterud: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,
Harald Steen: University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
Jon Olav Vik: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,
Eivind Østbye: University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
Bernard Cazelles: CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d’Ulm, 75230 Paris, France
Erik Framstad: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalleen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway
Anne Maria Eikeset: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,
Ivar Mysterud: University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
Torstein Solhøy: University of Bergen, Realfagbygget, Allegaten 41, N-5007 Bergen, Norway
Nils Chr. Stenseth: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,

Nature, 2008, vol. 456, issue 7218, 93-97

Abstract: Falling lemming populations Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) are well known for their population cycles, which are thought, at their peak, to influence other ecosystem components. In fact the role of the physical environment — climate included — in determining rodent cycle dynamics has remained largely a matter of conjecture. Now from a combination of long-term (1970–2007) data on rodent density, bird densities and field estimates of snow pack conditions together with meteorological data, a clearer picture of the lemming cycle has been obtained. What emerges is a marked shift away from the familiar 3–5-year rodent cycles to an aperiodic, mostly low-amplitude state, which can be explained and predicted by the between-year variations in winter climate. There is strong evidence for the hypothesis that climate effects on rodent dynamics are transmitted to other parts of the ecosystem.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1038/nature07442

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