Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Marten Scheffer (), Jordi Bascompte, William A. Brock, Victor Brovkin, Stephen R. Carpenter, Vasilis Dakos, Hermann Held, Egbert H. van Nes, Max Rietkerk and George Sugihara
Additional contact information
Marten Scheffer: Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
Jordi Bascompte: Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Calle Américo Vespucio s/n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain
William A. Brock: 1180 Observatory Drive
Victor Brovkin: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Stephen R. Carpenter: Center for Limnology, 680 North Park Street, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
Vasilis Dakos: Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
Hermann Held: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
Egbert H. van Nes: Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
Max Rietkerk: Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
George Sugihara: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA

Nature, 2009, vol. 461, issue 7260, 53-59

Abstract: Tip-offs for tipping points Many complex systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have critical thresholds or tipping points where a sudden shift from one stable state to a contrasting regime may occur. Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, but work in different fields of science is now suggesting the existence of generic early warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching. Scheffer et al. conclude their review of this work optimistically: in situations where the existence of a critical transition is suspected, the generic character of the warning signs suggests that they may provide valuable information on whether the probability of a major event is increasing.

Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1038/nature08227

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