Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage
Robert Kopp (),
Frederik J. Simons,
Jerry X. Mitrovica,
Adam C. Maloof and
Michael Oppenheimer
Additional contact information
Frederik J. Simons: Department of Geosciences,
Jerry X. Mitrovica: Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
Adam C. Maloof: Department of Geosciences,
Michael Oppenheimer: Department of Geosciences,
Nature, 2009, vol. 462, issue 7275, 863-867
Abstract:
Abstract With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.
Date: 2009
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08686 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:462:y:2009:i:7275:d:10.1038_nature08686
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/
DOI: 10.1038/nature08686
Access Statistics for this article
Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper
More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().