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Climate change and the global malaria recession

Peter W. Gething (), David L. Smith, Anand P. Patil, Andrew J. Tatem, Robert W. Snow and Simon I. Hay ()
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Peter W. Gething: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
David L. Smith: Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
Anand P. Patil: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
Andrew J. Tatem: Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
Robert W. Snow: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, KEMRI – University of Oxford – Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Kenyatta National Hospital Grounds (behind NASCOP), P.O. Box 43640-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
Simon I. Hay: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK

Nature, 2010, vol. 465, issue 7296, 342-345

Abstract: Climate no danger to malaria control A comparison of a recently published evidence-based map of the distribution of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite with data from 1900, before the introduction of major malaria control measures, suggests that concerns that rising temperatures are a threat to malaria control efforts are misplaced. During a century when increases in global temperature have been unequivocal, the range and intensity of malaria has diminished dramatically. The postulated effect of warming is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the effects of control measures, suggesting that the success or failure of the antimalaria programme is likely to be determined by factors other than climate.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature09098

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