Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems

Simon N. Wood ()
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Simon N. Wood: Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath

Nature, 2010, vol. 466, issue 7310, 1102-1104

Abstract: Coping with chaotic ecology Many ecological systems have chaotic or near-chaotic dynamics. In such cases, it is difficult to test whether the data fit particular models, because the noise makes statistical comparison with the model impossible. Simon Wood has now devised a statistical method for making such inferences, based on extracting phase-insensitive summary statistics from the raw data and comparing to data that are simulated from the model. The method is demonstrated by an application to a well-known problem: the nature of the cycles in John Nicholson's classic ecological experiments on population size in the sheep blowfly Lucilia cuprina.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature09319

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