Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Matthias Zahn () and Hans von Storch
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Matthias Zahn: Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, 3 Earley Gate, Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AL, UK
Hans von Storch: Institute for Coastal Research /System Analysis and Modelling, GKSS-Research Centre, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany

Nature, 2010, vol. 467, issue 7313, 309-312

Abstract: Polar lows more scarce? Climate change is often associated with an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves or intense precipitation. Matthias Zahn and Hans von Storch use downscaled climate-model simulations to show that, in some circumstances, the opposite can also be true. They show that the incidence of North Atlantic polar lows — intense storms (sometimes called Arctic hurricanes) that are too small in area to be included in most general-circulation models — is likely to decrease by the late twenty-first century. The change is driven by a stronger increase in mid-tropospheric temperatures than in sea surface temperatures: this increases atmospheric stability and decreases the formation of polar lows.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature09388

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