Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

John M. Drake () and Blaine D. Griffen
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John M. Drake: Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia
Blaine D. Griffen: University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208, USA

Nature, 2010, vol. 467, issue 7314, 456-459

Abstract: Extinction: when the end is nigh At some stage, populations that become extinct because of environmental degradation pass a critical point beyond which extinction is inevitable. There are obvious advantages to being able to predict such tipping points in advance, and according to 'critical transitions' theory, that should be possible for dynamical systems of many types — including ecosystems, financial markets and climate (for a summary, see http://go.nature.com/uHi555 ). In experiments with laboratory populations of the water flea Daphnia magna, John Drake and Blaine Griffen identify a point they call 'critical slowing down' in the underlying growth equations of populations that are destined to fail. The results of these experiments indicate when, where and how to most sensitively detect this slowing down in nature, suggesting new techniques for assessing population viability.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature09389

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