Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply

Martin Jung (), Markus Reichstein (), Philippe Ciais, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Justin Sheffield, Michael L. Goulden, Gordon Bonan, Alessandro Cescatti, Jiquan Chen, Richard de Jeu, A. Johannes Dolman, Werner Eugster, Dieter Gerten, Damiano Gianelle, Nadine Gobron, Jens Heinke, John Kimball, Beverly E. Law, Leonardo Montagnani, Qiaozhen Mu, Brigitte Mueller, Keith Oleson, Dario Papale, Andrew D. Richardson, Olivier Roupsard, Steve Running, Enrico Tomelleri, Nicolas Viovy, Ulrich Weber, Christopher Williams, Eric Wood, Sönke Zaehle and Ke Zhang
Additional contact information
Martin Jung: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Markus Reichstein: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment (LSCE), Joint Unit of Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) and l'Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin (UVSQ)
Sonia I. Seneviratne: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Justin Sheffield: Princeton University
Michael L. Goulden: University of California
Gordon Bonan: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Alessandro Cescatti: European Commission — Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Change Unit
Jiquan Chen: University of Toledo
Richard de Jeu: Faculty of Earth and Life Scienes, Vrije Universiteit
A. Johannes Dolman: Faculty of Earth and Life Scienes, Vrije Universiteit
Werner Eugster: Institute of Plant Sciences, ETH Zurich
Dieter Gerten: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Damiano Gianelle: Istituto Agrario San Michele all'Adige, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Environment and Natural Resources Area
Nadine Gobron: European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Global Environmental Monitoring Unit
Jens Heinke: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
John Kimball: Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana
Beverly E. Law: Oregon State University
Leonardo Montagnani: Forest Services and Agency for the Environment, Autonomous Province of Bolzano
Qiaozhen Mu: Numerical Terradynamic Simulations Group, College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana
Brigitte Mueller: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Keith Oleson: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Dario Papale: University of Tuscia
Andrew D. Richardson: Harvard University
Olivier Roupsard: Cirad-Persyst, UPR 80, Fonctionnement et Pilotage des Ecosystèmes de Plantations
Steve Running: Numerical Terradynamic Simulations Group, College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana
Enrico Tomelleri: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Nicolas Viovy: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment (LSCE), Joint Unit of Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) and l'Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin (UVSQ)
Ulrich Weber: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Christopher Williams: Graduate School of Geography, Clark University
Eric Wood: Princeton University
Sönke Zaehle: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Ke Zhang: Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana

Nature, 2010, vol. 467, issue 7318, 951-954

Abstract: A question of water supply An acceleration of the global hydrological cycle, evapotranspiration included, is regarded as a key indicator of the impact of global warming on Earth's system. Evapotranspiration refers to the water that moves from Earth's land surface to the atmosphere through the combined effects of evaporation and plant transpiration. Martin Jung and colleagues use a data-driven machine-learning technique and a suite of process-based models to show that, between 1982 and 1997, evapotranspiration increased steadily with global warming. But since 1998, the increasing trend has flattened, probably as a result of limitations in soil-moisture supply in the Southern Hemisphere — particularly Africa and Australia. It remains to be seen whether this is part of a natural climate variation or a climate-change signal in which land evapotranspiration becomes more supply-limited in the long term.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature09396

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